Data Corner: Population Migration and Bank Profitability
By Xiaokang Wu, Analytics Intern, Kyle Zhong, Analytics Product Director, and Brennan Zubrick, Senior Director, Analytics and Research
This edition of the CSBS Data Corner explores domestic population migration trends and the potential impact on bank profitability.
The map in the top panel shows net migration patterns between 2010 and 2015 on a 4 km by 4 km grid level.1 Warm colors indicate a net inflow tendency and cool colors indicate a net outflow tendency. Black dots are locations of bank branches. The bottom panel shows annualized return on average assets (ROAA) for two cities with comparable total populations and similar density of banks: Chicago and Houston.
From 2010 to 2015 Chicago and Houston had opposite migration tendencies. Chicago had a net outflow of population while Houston shows an inflow of population. This pattern is reflected on the ROAA, as Chicago experienced a small net decline in ROAA during the period, while Houston demonstrated a clear upward trend. This analysis is a part of a banking industry research project by CSBS Analytics.
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