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The Community Bank Sentiment Index is an index derived from quarterly polling of community bankers across the nation. As community bankers answer questions about their outlook on the economy, their answers are analyzed and compiled into a single number. An index reading of 100 indicates a neutral sentiment, while anything above 100 indicates a positive sentiment, and anything below 100 indicates negative sentiment.

The 2023 Q4 Community Bank Sentiment Index Number is:

92


This represents a negative reading in economic sentiment by community bankers and is six points above the index reading for last quarter. This is the eighth consecutive quarter with a negative CBSI reading. 

Key Highlights: 

  • A score of 92 represents the highest reading from the index in nearly two years. The fourth quarter uptick follows last quarter’s increase of 13 points, making the six-month increase of 19 points the highest recorded since the survey premiered in 2019.
  • While the fourth quarter 2023 CBSI is the eighth consecutive reading below the neutral level of 100, it marks the first consecutive quarterly increases since early 2021.
  • Five of the seven components that comprise the CBSI improved from the previous quarterly survey. The indicators that dropped include capital spending (down 14 points) and operations expansion (down 10 points).
  • At 96, the monetary policy component had the greatest quarterly improvement, climbing 42 points from Q3 2023 and near the neutral level of 100. 
  • At 73, the business conditions component rose 14 points. This level still indicates a weaker economic outlook, but one that is not as bleak as previously indicated. Like the overall index, the business conditions component has been below 100 for eight consecutive quarters but is at its highest level since Q1 2022. 
  • In a special question, 81% of community bankers believe the U.S. economy is at the start of, or already in, a recession. The percentage is down from 87% last quarter.

   

Chart 1

Interactive Dashboard

In this interactive, you can click on a positive, neutral, or negative view in each subcategory to see how those respondents answered other questions. For example, if you click the "they will be better than today" green bar under business conditions, all other subcategories will update to display responses only by those people who believe future business conditions will be better than today. Clicking on the same item a second time will return you to the original display. 

Data Behind the Index

Every quarter, the Community Bank Sentiment Index number will be accompanied with a release explaining the underlying data. Links to the releases are saved below.

Sentiment Index Findings